Bitcoin se je pred odločitvijo ameriške centralne banke (Fed) zapodil v težave – pogovori na trgu

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1132 ET - Bitcoin is down 1.1% to $77,354 this morning, according to data from LSEG. The slide comes in part as bitcoin struggles to make a push past the near-term psychological barrier of $80,000, and also as the Federal Reserve will be announcing its next decision regarding interest rates on Wednesday. Markets mostly expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but the uncertainty around what outgoing Fed chairman Jerome Powell's next steps are, as well as the impending likely confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the new chair, have investors on edge. "Right now, Bitcoin is stuck in a tug-of-war," says Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau in a note. The potential of change coming from an incoming Warsh regime has traders nervous, Puckrin says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1025 ET - The Swiss National Bank could tolerate gains in the franc in order to hedge against imported inflation, Morgan Stanley strategists say in a note. Import prices rose in March, driven by a rise in energy prices due to the Iran war. This could dampen market expectations about SNB currency interventions to weaken the franc, they say. The franc looks poised to outperform if global growth concerns weigh significantly on global bond yields, they say. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.9208 francs. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1018 ET - Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are lower across the board, with profit-taking seen as a driving force. "Investors could move to secure their gains ahead of the busy economic calendar this week and amid the uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East," says Van Ha Trinh of Exness in a note. But any progress in negotiations to reopen the Strait could quickly whet the appetite of investors for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is down 0.8% to $77,642, while ethereum falls 2.5% to $2,305 and XRP is down 2% to $1.40. Solana slides 2.3% to $84.79. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0955 ET - Risks for the dollar look increasingly skewed towards the currency falling, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. Foreign exchange markets are seemingly becoming less sensitive to headlines related to energy supply disruptions due to the war, with investors looking at longer-term themes, they say. "Indeed we think investors tend to agree with our view that there is more scope for the dollar to trade at a deeper discount to rate differentials." However, the analysts are cautious about turning outright negative on the dollar as they think investors might be underestimating shortages of refined energy products which could lead to weaker expectations for economic data and risk aversion. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 98.322. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0952 ET - In his confirmation hearing to lead the Fed, Kevin Warsh said he likes to look at trimmed-mean inflation metrics to get a read on underlying price trends. Given that these readings have been lower than headline inflation rates recently, Warsh may back away from citing them in official policy decisions, analysts at Wrightson suggest. When push comes to shove, "we suspect that Warsh himself would be careful to avoid the appearance of cherry-picking favorable inflation measures at a time of widespread dissatisfaction with the cost of living," Wrightson says. Warsh has pledged to bolster Fed credibility. "Telling the public that high inflation readings are misleading would be a tough sell," the firm notes. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

0930 ET - The Bank of England monetary policy committee members could vote by a majority of eight to one in favor of keeping interest rates on hold during Thursday's rate decision, Morgan Stanley's Bruna Skarica and Fabio Bassanin say in a note. The BOE is expected to provide policy guidance on the potential direction of future interest rate decisions, they say. Given the high energy costs and increased risk of inflation, the BOE faces the dilemma of whether potential interest rate rises to control inflation would be worth the estimated loss in economic growth, the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0920 ET - Treasury yields rise as political violence resurges in the U.S. and President Trump says peace talks with Iran can be done by phone. The gunman suspected of targeting Trump at Saturday's White House Correspondents' dinner in Washington, is set to appear in court. The Fed is expected to keep rates on hold Wednesday. The ECB, the BoJ and the BoE are also having rate-setting meetings this week. The 10-year yield is at 4.318%, up from 4.306% earlier today. The two-year rises to 3.797% from 3.785%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0911 ET - The path looks clear for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair. But the leadership transition likely won't bring an immediate change to the Fed's policy stance in the months ahead, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle says in a note to clients. "A new chair might not have as much influence as Powell had in pressing for cuts when the FOMC is divided," he says. And setting aside Warsh's sway, the incoming chair may not turn out to be much more eager to cut rates than Powell is, especially while uncertainty around the war in the Middle East remains high. Goldman still thinks easing is on the way before year end, however, holding onto its previous forecast that the Fed will cut by a quarter point each in September and December. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

0901 ET - Banks halted the issuance of new subordinated bonds in the euro market last week due to uncertainty around the Middle East conflict, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. Subordinated bonds are ranked lower than senior bonds in priority for repayment, making the bonds risky for investors. High uncertainty has led to risk aversion among investors, causing issuers to pause the supply of new risky bonds. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0825 ET - Investors are expected to pay attention to the Bank of England vote split during this week's interest-rate decision, Insight Investment's Jill Hirzel says in a note. The BOE is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with investors pricing in an 84% probability of that outcome, LSEG data show. Markets are also expected to focus on any updates regarding U.K. growth and inflation forecasts, Hirzel says. The growth forecasts are expected to be revised downward while inflation forecasts are likely to be revised upward, she says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0758 ET - Market pricing reflects a higher probability of Bank of Engalnd interest-rate hikes than is warranted, UBS's Dean Turner says in a note. All eyes at this week's BOE meeting will be on evidence of second-round effects, such as in wage and price-setting behavior, and how monetary policy may need to respond, he says. However, the BOE's Decision Maker Panel and Agents' summary suggest the energy-price shock is more likely to weigh on company margins and demand than generate a wage-price spiral. "Despite the fact that one-year ahead inflation expectations have risen, longer-term expectations remain well anchored and expected wage growth is not rising." Risks to growth also suggests central banks will stick with a cautious approach, Turner says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0756 ET - The Bank of England's could deliver a split vote on leaving interest rates unchanged Thursday, with some policymakers favoring raising rates, HSBC's Paul Mackel says in a note. Sterling's potential to benefit from this looks limited, however, as the market is already pricing in a significant degree of policy tightening, roughly 60 basis points by year-end, he says. Some BOE members, including Megan Greene and/or Huw Pill, could vote for a rate rise, surprising expectations for a 9-0 vote to keep rates steady, he says. Sterling rises 0.2% to a 10-day high of $1.3563 against a weaker dollar, LSEG data show. The euro trades flat at 0.8658 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260427006497:0/