Bitcoin se je nekoliko dvignil, potem ko je poročilo razkrivalo, da je Trump pripravljen končati vojno v Iranu – Pogovori na trgu

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0710 GMT - Bitcoin edges higher as tentative hopes for an end to the Middle East conflict improve risk appetite. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. "He appears to be driven by a desire to calm market tension and bring down energy prices as the mid-term election campaign looms," Wealth Club's Susannah Streeter says in a note. However, trading is likely to remain volatile amid conflicting signals that indicate it's a complex conflict which will be difficult to resolve, she says. Bitcoin rises 1.2% to $67,362 after reaching a one-month low of $64,991 on Monday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0705 GMT - China's latest purchasing managers' index data supports the view that 1Q GDP growth will likely exceed 4.5%, ANZ Research economists say in a note. China's headline PMI for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors returned to expansion territory in March. In particular, a rise in the output price subindex reinforces expectations that China's deflation cycle over the past three and a half years may soon end, while March's producer price index will likely turn positive as well due to imported inflation. ANZ no longer expects policy rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, as growth momentum is now within the policy target. Instead, policymakers are likely to focus on structural measures to address the impact of energy shocks stemming from the war in Iran. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0658 GMT - Singapore's consumer inflation will likely only visibly reflect higher oil costs in a few months, says eToro's Zavier Wong in commentary. Nearly all products manufactured and shipped have an embedded oil cost, but retailers and manufacturers will typically absorb input costs increases for "a quarter or two" before passing them on, he says. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in March and reducing its projected cuts would lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, which raises Asian import costs, he adds. This would lift costs tied to utility bills and operating expenses in Singapore, given that around 95% of the city-state's electricity comes from imported natural gas, he says. He expects Singapore's March inflation data to indicate how much of the global energy shock has started to land domestically. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0646 GMT - China's March PMI data beat expectations, suggesting there's a significant chance that the first quarter's growth expectations will be beaten, according to Citi economists in a research note. They say the global oil shock has hurt China's position as a reliable world factory but despite "some dents to the petrochemical supply chain, broader industrial activities remained stable." The impact of the Middle East conflict on China is mostly via prices and Citi estimates a 10% oil price rise could lift PPI by about 1.15 percentage point and CPI by about 0.23 percentage point. "The imminent need for fiscal policy support is rather low, but positive and rising inflation could delay the PBOC's rate cut" to 2H 2026, they say. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0644 GMT - The dollar eases after reaching a 10-month high against a basket of currencies overnight as The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is willing to end military strikes against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Even though the Strait of Hormuz wouldn't return to normal in that scenario, the report boosted risk sentiment on the prospect of the conflict ending soon, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. The market has also priced out the chance of a U.S. rate rise after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation expectations were well anchored beyond the short term, they say. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 100.455 after reaching a high of 100.643 overnight. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0619 GMT - China's better-than-expected official manufacturing PMI for March and improvements in the new export orders and production sub-indexes suggest a limited hit to supply and demand from the Middle East war, Barclays economists say in a note. New export orders hit a nearly two-year high in March, they note, adding that this supports their view that exports will remain an important driver of GDP growth. A prolonged Mideast conflict is likely to accelerate the global transition to green energy, which could benefit China as the world's leading green-technology powerhouse, they say. However, they note that input prices have risen sharply across manufacturing sectors and the pass-through to output prices has so far remained relatively muted, implying continued pressure on corporate profit margins. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0609 GMT - The Korean won weakens to a 17-year low against the dollar in Asian session amid mounting growth concerns spurred by the Middle East conflict. "Investors [are] placing greater weight on slowing growth rather than renewed inflation pressures from the energy shock," two FX strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a research report. The current round of selling is hitting pro-cyclical currencies such as the won, the strategists say. "There is a gradual shift in repricing of global growth risks as Iran conflict appears to last longer than expected, moving past a volatility event," they add. The dollar rises 1.1% to 1,534.40 won after earlier touching 1,536.80 won, its highest intraday level since 2009, LSEG data show.(ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0604 GMT - The outright yield level for Germany's March 2028 Schatz looks attractive ahead of its auction Tuesday, Danske Bank's Kristoffer Kjaer Lomholt says in a note. The German Finance Agency is scheduled to auction 5 billion euros of this treasury note. "Given the significant rise in the outright yield of almost 50 basis points since the last tap auction, the outright yield looks attractive given what is priced in for the European Central Bank," the director for FX and rates strategy says. The March 2028 Schatz closed at 2.622% on Monday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0559 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields decline in Asian trade, as worries over the prospect of weakening growth due to the Middle East conflict gain traction. In this context, investors will watch JOLTS job openings data. With little signs of de-escalation in the war after a month, high oil prices not only could drive inflation higher but also slow growth globally via slowing consumer demand. What initially seemed unlikely is now becoming more plausible, with the risk of a stagflationary environment starting to take shape, SimCorp's Olivier d'Assier says in a note. The two-year Treasury yield declines 2.1 basis points to 3.806%, while the 10-year Treasury yield falls 1.9 basis points to 4.322%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0541 GMT - The Middle East conflict calls for a reappraisal of HSBC's yield forecasts, European rates strategist Chris Attfield and senior economist Fabio Balboni say in a note. "We expect the 10-year [German] Bund yield to be at 3.00% at the end of the second quarter but to fall to 2.80% by the end of the year as the curve flattens," he says. Previously, HSBC expected the 10-year Bund yield to be at 2.85% at the year-end. HSBC expects two-year German yields to stay around the current level, but it emphasizes that its risk scenarios see the Bund curve substantially flatter or inverted. On Monday, the two-year German Schatz yield closed at 2.622%, while the 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.039%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0527 GMT - The main challenge for economies is a more pronounced and longer-term supply shock, Aviva Investors says in a note. "A disruption is already the reality, but no one knows exactly how the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf will play out and what it means for shipping oil and other goods through the Strait of Hormuz," it says. "But the global economy has buffers and has weathered $90-$120 oil before," it says. Many countries use a mix of subsidies or price caps to blunt the impact on households and businesses, although this has a fiscal impact, Aviva Investors says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0523 GMT - The eurozone's largest 11 countries are expected to issue between 110 billion euros and 120 billion euros in government bonds in April, Morgan Stanley's Maria Chiara Russo and Luca Salford say in a note. Bond supply in April should be lower than in March and also than in April 2025, "largely reflecting current market conditions, which--if protracted--could discourage syndication activity," the rates strategists say. "In our view, current market conditions are not supportive of new syndications," they say. Unless conditions improve, the strategists expect the lower supply relative to 2025 to be driven mainly by the absence of new syndications from France, Italy, and Austria, while Portugal may still come to the market. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260331001356:0/